Timothy's Note: The following article is by Shane Copper for Physicians for Civil Defense. I am reprinting it here with permission in accordance with the terms of the copyright notice found at the end of this article. All links have been left intact..
The Good News About Nuclear Destruction
By Shane Connor for Physicians for Civil Defense
FOREWORD
Toshiharu Kano, third generation Japanese-American, author of Passport to Hiroshima reminded us recently;
"I am the last, closest to ground zero (800 meters from hypocenter),
living survivor of Hiroshima atomic bomb of August 1945. Many of the
tens of thousands of victims there tragically perished from an
unfamiliarity of how to protect themselves from the unique effects of a
nuclear bomb's flash, blast and radiation. As a US citizen living in
middle America today I see a hauntingly similar vulnerability growing
among the general public here ever since Civil Defense was discontinued
after the Reagan Cold War era. The 'Good News About Nuclear Destruction'
is that if all Americans were trained again in the Civil Defense basics
of what to do and not do if nuclear weapons were ever unleashed again,
we could instantly make all nukes 90% less lethal. Ideally, while I'd
like to see a world free of nuclear weapons someday, in the meantime we
should all embrace rejuvenating public Civil Defense to greatly minimize
their lethality."
What possible 'good news'
could there ever be about nuclear destruction coming to America,
whether it is Dirty Bombs, Terrorist Nukes, or ICBM's from afar?
In a word, they are all
survivable for the vast majority of American families, IF they know what
to do beforehand and have made even the most modest of preparations.
Tragically, though, most Americans today won't give much credence to this good news, much less seek out such vital life-saving instruction, as they have been jaded by our culture's pervasive myths of nuclear un-survivability.
Most people think that if
nukes go off then everybody is going to die, or it'll be so bad they'll
wish they had. That's why you hear such absurd comments as; "If it happens, I hope I'm at ground zero and go quickly."
This defeatist attitude
was born as the disarmament movement ridiculed any competing
alternatives to their ban-the-bomb agenda, like Civil Defense. The
activists wanted all to think there was no surviving any nukes,
disarmament was your only hope. The sound Civil Defense strategies of
the 50's, 60's and 70's have been derided as being largely ineffective,
or at worst a cruel joke. Since the supposed end of the Cold War in the
80's, most Americans saw neither a need to prepare, nor believed that
preparation would do any good. Today, with growing prospects of nuclear
terrorism, and nuclear saber rattling from rogue nations, we see
emerging among the public either paralyzing fear or irrational denial.
People can't even begin to envision effective preparations for ever
surviving a nuclear attack. They think it totally futile, bordering on
lunacy, to even try.
Ironically, the
disarmament activists legacy, regardless their noble intent, has
rendered millions of Americans even more vulnerable to perishing from
nukes in the future.
The biggest surprise for
most Americans, from the first flash of a nuke being unleashed, is that
they will still be here, though ill-equipped to survive for long, if
they don't know what to do, and not do, beforehand from that very first
second of the initial flash onward.
For instance, many could readily survive the delayed blast wave via the old 'Duck & Cover' tactic, and that is very good news,
IF they knew to do it quick as the flash appeared. Unfortunately, most
don't, and even fewer know how to later survive the coming radioactive
fallout which could eventually kill many times more than the blast.
However, there is still more good news possible, as well over 90%
of those potential casualties from fallout are avoidable, too, IF the
public was pre-trained through an aggressive national Civil Defense
educational program. Simple measures taken immediately after a nuclear
detonation, by a pre-trained public, can prevent agonizing death and
injury from radiation exposure.
The National Planning
Scenario #1, an originally confidential internal 2004 study by the
Department of Homeland Security, examined the effects of a terrorist
nuke detonated in Washington, D.C.. They discovered that a 10 kiloton
nuke, about 2/3rds the size of the Hiroshima bomb, detonated at ground
level, would result in about 15,000 immediate deaths, and another 15,000
casualties from the blast, thermal flash and initial radiation release.1
As horrific as that is, and even without 'Duck & Cover', the
surprising revelation here is that over 99% of the residents in the DC
area will have just witnessed and survived their first nuclear
explosion. Clearly, the good news is most people would survive that initial blast.
However, that study also
soberly determined that as many as another 250,000 people could soon be
at risk from lethal doses of radiation from the fallout drifting
downwind towards them after the blast. (Another study, released in
August 2006 by the Rand Corporation, looked at a terrorist 10 kiloton
nuke arriving in a cargo container and being exploded in the Port of
Long Beach, California. Over 150,000 people were estimated to be at risk
downwind from fallout, again many more than from the initial blast
itself.2)
The good news
here, that these much larger casualty numbers from radioactive fallout
are largely avoidable, too, only applies to those pre-trained beforehand
by a Civil Defense program in what they need to do before it arrives.
Today, lacking any
meaningful Civil Defense program, millions of American families continue
to be at risk and could perish needlessly for lack of essential
knowledge that used to be taught at the grade school level.
The public at large,
businesses and all our children's schools, urgently need to be
instructed in Civil Defense basics again. Like how most can save
themselves by immediately employing the 'Duck & Cover' tactic,
rather than just allowing an impulsive rush to the nearest windows to
see what that 'bright flash' was across town, just-in-time to be
shredded by the glass imploding inward from that delayed shock wave
blast.
Most also don't know,
even when caught in the open, just lying flat, reduces by eight-fold the
chances of being hit by debris from that brief, three second, tornado
strength shock wave blast that, like lightning & thunder, could be
delayed arriving anywhere from a couple seconds to 2 minutes after that
initial flash.
Remember the February,
2013 Chelyabinsk Russia meteor air burst? 1,500 people were injured,
most from the delayed shock wave exploding inward the window glass they
were anxiously scanning the winter sky through trying to see what/where
the bright flash was earlier. "A fourth-grade teacher in Chelyabinsk,
Yulia Karbysheva, was hailed as a hero after saving 44 children from
imploding window glass cuts. Despite not knowing the origin of the
intense flash of light, Karbysheva thought it prudent to take
precautionary measures by ordering her students to stay away from the
room's windows and to perform a duck and cover maneuver. Karbysheva, who
remained standing, was seriously lacerated when the blast arrived and
window glass severed a tendon in one of her arms; however, none of her
students, whom she ordered to hide under their desks, suffered cuts." 3
'Duck & Cover', while
under appreciated by most Americans, has long been known as a simple
and effective shock wave blast life-saver, even as early as Hiroshima
(15 KT) and Nagasaki (22 KT).
"According to the 1946
book Hiroshima, in the days between the Hiroshima and Nagasaki atomic
bombings in Japan, one Hiroshima policeman went to Nagasaki to teach
police about ducking after the atomic flash. As a result of this timely
warning, not a single Nagasaki policeman died in the initial blast.
Unfortunately, the general population was not warned of the heat/blast
danger following an atomic flash because of the bomb's unknown nature.
Many people in Hiroshima and Nagasaki died while searching the skies for
the source of the brilliant flash." 4
Robert Trumbull - the New York Times Pacific and Asia war correspondent,
1941-79 who had been in Iwo Jima - documented more double-bombing
survivors in his 1957 book Nine Who Survived Hiroshima and Nagasaki:
Personal Experiences of Nine Men who Lived Through Both
Atomic Bombings5. Two of their experiences and their ages on 9 August 1945:
Tsutomu Yamaguchi, 29, Mitsubishi ship designer who died in 2010, aged 93 (Trumbull pp. 28 and 109): "'Suddenly
there was a flash like the lighting of a huge magnesium flare,'
Yamaguchi recalls. The young ship designer was so well drilled in
air-raid precaution techniques that he reacted automatically. He flung
his hands to his head, covering his eyes with his fingers and stopping
his ears with his two thumbs. Simultaneously he dropped to the ground,
face down. ... 'As I prostrated myself, there came a terrific explosion'
... [The left side of his face and arm facing the fireball were burned,
and he returned to Nagasaki, experiencing the second nuclear explosion
on the sixth-floor of the headquarters office of Mitsubishi.] Spelling
out the danger of flying glass, he urged them to keep windows open
during an air-raid alert, and at the instant of the flash to seize at
once upon any shelter available ... the second A-bomb confirmed young
Yamaguchi's words, exploding in a huge ball of fire about a mile away.
Yamaguchi's lecture [just an hour earlier!] ... was not lost upon his
colleagues. With the young designer's words still fresh in their minds,
they leaped for the cover of desks and tables. 'As a result,' said
Yamaguchi, 'my section staff suffered the least in that building. In
other sections there was a heavy toll of serious injuries from flying
glass'."
Masao Komatsu, 40, was hit by falling beam in a Hiroshima warehouse and
was on board a train in Nagasaki when the bomb fell (Trumbull, p101): "...the
interior of the coach was bathed in a stark, white light. Komatsu
immediately dived for the floor. 'Get down!' he screamed at the other
passengers. Some recovered sufficiently from the daze of the blinding
light to react promptly to his warning. Seconds later came the deafening
crack of the blast, and a shock wave that splintered all the windows on
both sides of the train. The passengers who had not dived under the
seats were slashed mercilessly from waist to head by glass flying at
bullet speed."
While terrorist nukes
would likely be smaller than the Hiroshima (15 KT) bomb, in a modern
super power conflict today, the nukes would be larger, most in the 100
KT to 500 KT range. The unsurvivable 'ground zero' lethal zone of a 500
KT nuke airburst, would extend out to about 2.2 miles. The blast wave
would arrive at that 2.2 mile marker about eight seconds after the flash
and then continue on causing death or injury from there out to about 9
miles. Putting at grave risk then an additional over 15 times more souls
than were already lost within that unsurvivable 2.2 mile ground zero
radius. That's IF they don't know to 'Duck & Cover' in those 8 to
20+ seconds after the flash and before the blast wave arrived.
In other words, with 'Duck & Cover' taught to and employed by all,
there could be over 15 times fewer casualties from that blast wave!6
Clearly, prompt 'Duck & Cover', upon any bright flash suddenly appearing, is lifesaving good news everyone should be taught!
They need to also be
taught, after the blast, attempting to outrun that downwind drift of the
fallout is strongly discouraged. It only works if wind direction,
speed, and distance from ground zero is known and assures plenty enough
time to escape exposure in the open well before the fallout would arrive
along their, likely clogged, route. They must also be taught,
sheltering-in-place is usually the better option, as the radioactive
fallout loses 90% of its lethal intensity in the first seven hours and
99% of it in two days. For those requiring sheltering from fallout, the
majority would only need two or three days of full-time hunkering down,
not weeks on end, before safely joining an evacuation, if even still
necessary then.
That's more good news
as an effective expedient fallout shelter can easily be improvised at
home, school or work quickly, but, again, only IF the public had been
trained beforehand in how to do so, as was begun in the 50's, 60's &
70's with our national Civil Defense program.
Unfortunately, our
government today is doing little to promote nuclear preparedness and
Civil Defense instruction among the general public. Regrettably, most of
our politicians, like the public, are still captive to the same
illusions that training and preparation of the public are ineffective
and futile against a nuclear threat.
Bush administration
Department of Homeland Security, Michael Chertoff, demonstrated this
attitude in 2005 when he responded to the following question in USA
Today;7
Q: In the last four
years, the most horrific scenario - a nuclear attack - may be the least
discussed. If there were to be a nuclear attack tomorrow by terrorists
on an American city, how would it be handled?
A: In the area of a
nuclear bomb, it's prevention, prevention, prevention. If a nuclear bomb
goes off, you are not going to be able to protect against it. There's
no city strong enough infrastructure-wise to withstand such a hit. No
matter how you approach it, there'd be a huge loss of life.
Mr. Chertoff failed to
grasp that most of that "huge loss of life" could be avoided if those in
the blast zone and downwind knew what to do beforehand. He only
acknowledges that the infrastructure will be severely compromised -- too
few first-responders responding. Civil Defense pre-training of the
public is clearly the only hope for those in the blast zone and later in
the fallout path. Of course, the government should try and prevent it
happening first, but the answer he should have given to that question
is; "preparation, preparation, preparation" of the public via training
beforehand, for when prevention by the government might fail.
The Obama administration
also failed to grasp that the single greatest force multiplier to
reducing potential casualties, and greatly enhancing the effectiveness
of first-responders, is a pre-trained public so that there will be far
fewer casualties to later deal with. Spending millions to train and
equip first-responders is good and necessary, but having millions fewer
victims, by having also educated and trained the public beforehand, too,
would be many magnitudes more effective in saving lives. Maybe the
Trump administration will do better, but time is short.
The federal government
needs to launch a national mass media, business supported, and school
based effort, superseding our most ambitious public awareness campaigns
like for AIDs, drug abuse, drunk driving, anti-smoking, etc. The effort
should percolate down to every level of our society. Let's be clear - we
are talking about the potential to save, or lose needlessly, many times
more lives than those saved by all these other noble efforts combined!
Instead, Homeland Security continues with a focus primarily on...
#1 - Interdiction - Catching nuclear materials and terrorists beforehand and...
#2 - Continuity of Government (COG) and casualty response afterwards for when #1 fails
While the vital key component continues to be largely ignored...
#3 - Continuity of the Public while it's happening - via proven mass media Civil Defense training beforehand
that would make the survival difference then for the vast majority of
Americans affected by a nuclear event and on their own from that first
initial flash & blast and through those critical first couple days
of the highest radiation threat, before government response has arrived
in force.
This deadly oversight will persist until those crippling myths of nuclear un-survivability are banished by the good news that a trained and prepared public can, and ultimately has to, save themselves. More training of the public beforehand means less body bags required afterwards, it's that simple.
The tragic After Action
Reports (AAR's), of an American city nuked today, would glaringly reveal
then that the overwhelming majority of victims had perished needlessly
for lack of this basic, easy to learn & employ, life-saving
knowledge.
Re-launching Civil
Defense training is an issue we hope & pray will come to the
forefront on the political stage, with both parties vying to outdo each
other proposing national Civil Defense public educational programs. We
are not asking billions for provisioned public fallout shelters for all,
like what already awaits many of our politicians. We are just asking
for a comprehensive mass media, business, and school based re-release of
the proven practical strategies of Civil Defense instruction, a
modernized version of what we used to have here, and that had been
embraced by the Chinese, Russians, Swiss and Israeli's.
There is no greater, nor
more legitimate, primary responsibility of any government than to
protect its citizens. And, no greater condemnation awaits that
government that fails to, risking millions then perishing needlessly. We
all need to demand renewed public Civil Defense training and the media
needs to spotlight it by questioning officials and politicians, until
the government corrects this easily avoidable, but fatal vulnerability.
In the meantime, though,
don't wait around for the government to instruct and prepare your own
family and community. Educate yourself today and begin establishing your
own family nuclear survival preparations by reading the free nuke prep
primer...
Then, post links to, or
pass copies of, this 'Good News' article to friends, neighbors,
relatives, fellow workers, churches and community organizations with a
brief note attached saying simply: "We hope/pray we never need this, but
just-in-case, keep it handy!" Few nowadays will find that approach
alarmist and you'll be pleasantly surprised at how many are truly
grateful.
Everyone should also
forward copies to their local, state and federal elected
representatives, as well as your own communities first-responders and
local media, all to help spread this good news that's liberating American families from their paralyzing and potentially fatal myths of nuclear un-survivability!
Bottom Line: We could easily reduce by 90% the lethality of all Chinese,
Russian, N Korean and Iranian missiles, and any terrorist nukes, too,
quick as the public is trained up in blast & fallout Civil Defense
basics again. And, that is very good news!
The mission of Physicians for Civil Defense is to save lives of first responders and the general public
in the event of disasters, especially terrorist attacks using dirty bombs or nuclear weapons.
If you'd like to help with tax-deductible contributions to expand our "Good News About Nuclear Destruction..."
billboard outreach across America, or find out how to do it in your own community as a public service,
contact Physicians for Civil Defense.
7/17/2014 Press Release here.
Together, we could save millions of American families from needlessly perishing in a future nuclear disaster!
Everyone is invited to copy,
post, print, and distribute 'THE GOOD NEWS ABOUT NUCLEAR DESTRUCTION!'
article anywhere, as long as they do so without charging anything for
it. It must be reproduced in entirety, including this notice, and not be
altered or edited. Easy print PDF version www.ki4u.com/goodnews.pdf To contact the author with comments, e-mail:
Shane Connor
--------------------
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