A Reader's Comments on my Weather Forcasting article

By Timothy Gamble (June 15, 2016)

A couple of weeks ago, I posted an article entitled Post-Collapse Skill: Weather Forecasting. In it, I pointed out how useful the ability to accurately forecast the weather would be in a post-collapse world, where we no longer have the national weather service, weather satellites, etc.  One of my twitter followers, Cindy McCafferty (@CMcCafferty3), an amateur weather forecaster according to her twitter bio, sent me a series of tweets on the topic. Here are her suggestions**:

** "Acurite has a station battery and solar powered $100 Walmart, $200 internet recording on"  

** "Mine is the Acurite 1010 Pro several years old $80-100 at Walmart. Mine does not connect to internet/stats on Wunderground"

** " My old Acurite 1010 Professional indoor monitor panel buy the one with all the bells and whistle"  Her tweet included this pic:

Folks, here's the link to the Amazon listings for AcuRite weather stations. 

** "You can also use stats from other people's stations on Wunderground"

The website for Wunderground is https://www.wunderground.com. Its a really interesting website, which uses/posts stats from thousands of personal weather stations. You can easily pull up info from nearby weather stations.

** "And don't forget aneroid at hardware stores, garage sales set altitude"

McCafferty is referring to aneroid barometers, which are instruments for measuring pressure with a method that does not involve using a liquid. Remember to adjust them for your altitude.

In some other tweets, McCafferty also suggests being careful of where you place your weather station. Too near a building, for example, might interfere with wind speed measurement, etc.

Additionally, she says ** "The 1010 dies not connect to internet yo share data. Wish mine did. But you can take advantage if local station stats of other via Wunderground."

She also stresses the need for complete weather information for accurate weather forecasting, and that not all weather stations have all the information you really need, therefore: ** "Always buy the professional stations" if accurate forecasts are your goal. 

Thank You, Cindy, for you comments. I found them very useful, and will likely be getting my own AcuRite weather station in the next few weeks!

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Post Collapse Skill - Weather Forcasting

By Timothy Gamble (June 1, 2016)

A post collapse skill that would be very useful is the ability to make accurate weather forecasts several days in advance, without depending on modern technology (weather satellites, doppler radar, etc.). Weather has a huge impact on our lives. It affects our crops, our animals, our ability to do work, our comfort, and even our very life. Weather can destroy our property, and even kill people.  A knowledge of weather, and the ability to forecast it at least a day or two in advance, helps immensely in planning what we need to do and when, and in warning us when we need to prepare for possible dangerous weather events.

All weatherman jokes aside, it is possible to predict, with a fair amount of accuracy, the weather several days in advance.  And you don't need modern technology to do so. A few basic instruments to monitor current conditions (temperature, humidity, wind direction & speed, and barometric pressure), along with the ability to recognize various types of cloud formations and good understanding of weather patterns, is really all you need. In fact, I've done this quite successfully.

My Meteorology Lab

Growing up I was a science geek (actually a "nerd" in those days). For Christmas during my seventh grade year, I got a Meteorology Lab as  present. It came with three main pieces: 1) an outside weather station to monitor wind direction & speed, temperature, humidity, and precipitation, 2) an inside station with a barometer to measure barometric (air) pressure, along with a set of cardboard wheels that could be dialed to the current specific weather conditions and give you a basic forecast, and 3) an instruction book and cloud chart (you would use the cloud types and cloud coverage % to refine the basic forecast), along with weekly cards for recording each day's weather conditions.

I actually kept about four years with of daily records, before my equipment started to wear out and I lost interest. I couldn't make forecasts more than a few days away. But, frankly, my forecasts for 1, 2, and 3 days away were at least as accurate as the local forecasts from professionals with way more expensive equipment.

My meteorology lab and records were thrown away many years ago, but I've developed a renewed interest in the subject, and really do think it will prove a very useful skill in any post-collapse scenario. I've recently pulled out my weather books (see the resources listed below), and am looking for a weather station similar to the one I used to have.

I plan on relearning my weather forecasting skills, and understand the microclimate of the area I'm living now by daily monitoring of my local weather. A fun hobby now, an important skill later... 

Resources (I have and can recommend these)

Golden Guide - Weather - This small book (4x6 inches, 160 pages) is a rather through introduction to the science of meteorology.  Filled with pictures and diagrams, it explains in an easy-to-understand way, the science of the weather and weather forecasting. Appropriate for middle-schoolers through adults.

Peterson Field Guide to the Atmosphere - An extensive guide to clouds and other weather  & atmospheric phenomenon, has over 400 photographs and illustrations, this book is currently out-of-print, but second-hand copies can still be readily found. A condensed version, Peterson's Clouds and Weather, is available new. 

Weather: A Folding Pocket Guide to to Clouds, Storms and Weather Patterns - is a well-done, laminated fold-out chart to clouds, storms and weather patterns. 

Weather Stations

There are a wide variety of weather stations and meteorology educational kits available, with a wide range of appropriate age levels, capabilities, and prices. I haven't yet found one similar to the one I had in school, and am still looking. If you have any suggestions, please leave it in the comments section!

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Achieving Menos - A Goal For All Preppers

By Timothy Gamble

The ancient Greeks had a moral value called Menos. There is no precise English translation, but very loosely translated it means "life, energy, vitality."  More than just good health, the value also embodies physical, spiritual, and emotional fitness, as well as a purpose, vigor and strength of life. Someone with menos is in excellent health, physically fit, mentally and emotionally fit, and highly energetic - ready and willing to enthusiastically take on life's challenges. The value of menos is one that I seek to build in my life, especially as a prepper, survivalist, and believer in self-reliance. Of course, I have a long way to go yet, but I'm getting there.

Here is a list of basic rules I've come up with to achieve menos in my life.  Healthy living is a much more complex topic, of course, but this list makes a good starting point.

1) Avoid smoking and/or abusing drugs or alcohol. This one is obvious, but a lot of people fail to achieve this important step to improving their health.

2) Get between 7 & 9 hours of sleep per night. I know plenty of people who claim to get by on six hours of sleep a night or less. You might "get by" with less, but the research is overwhelming - adequate sleep is very important to good health and energy. Lack of adequate sleep not only makes you tired, but it also impairs your concentration, motivation, memory, and fine motor skills, as well as negatively impacts your mood. Not only that, but a long-term lack of adequate sleep compromises your immune system and plays a role in developing high blood pressure, heart disease, type II diabetes, and even several forms of cancer. Getting enough sleep regular basis really is a must for your health.

3) Be physically active everyday. Many experts recommend at least one hour of moderate exercise a day, at least five days a week. What is moderate exercise? It needs to be vigorous enough to cause you to break out in a slight sweat. Walking, hiking, swimming, and bike riding are excellent, ways to exercise, as are gardening and yard work (use a push mower - your riding mower doesn't count as exercise). Try to mix in some Resistance training, too. Resistance training typically means weight lifting, but also includes exercises utilizing rubber exercise bands or even your own body (push-ups, pull-ups, sit-ups, leg squats) to cause muscles to contract and expand. Don't want to join a gym? Me neither. Get yourself a set of exercise bands and/or dumbbells (free weights) to use them at home!

NOTE: Use common sense - if you are elderly, pregnant, badly out-of-shape, or have a serious health condition, please get your doctor's advice before starting an exercise program.

4) Eat Healthy. An obvious step, but one that is difficult because so many people have radically different ideas of what are healthy foods. Worse, many of those varying ideas are based not on facts, but on ideology and/or self-interest (think $). Since being diagnosed with diabetes (as well as high blood pressure, low testosterone, and mild anemia) almost five years ago, I've done a lot of research into what actually is a healthy diet. Here is how I now eat:

I've eliminated all grains (including rice and corn), white potatoes, and refined sugar from my diet. Naturally, this means I no longer eat sweets and most junk foods. Instead of sweets, I may occasionally have a small amount of fruit (berries are especially healthy and tasty), but I am careful about how much I eat because of the naturally high amount of sugar in most fruits. I do not drink fruit juice (way too much sugar).

Healthy fats make up the largest percentage of my diet. Examples of healthy fats include eggs, fatty fish (salmon, tuna, herring, trout, mackerel, and shrimp, among others), avocados, butter, cheese, pumpkin and sunflower seeds, most nuts, olive oil, and coconut oil.

Eggs have become the staple of my diet. I eat two eggs for breakfast each morning and  usually have a hard-boiled egg for an evening snack. In addition, I occasionally eat eggs at other meals. I typically eat two dozen or more eggs a week, and have for the last five years. Yet my cholesterol numbers and blood pressure are now both well within the normal range without any medication. The bad reputation eggs have comes from on extremely outdated science from the 60s and 70's, yet is so ingrained into the cultural psyche that even most doctors repeat that nonsense today.  

I keep my carbohydrate intake relatively low. The carbs I do eat are the high-quality carbs such as the cruciferous vegetables, which include cabbage, broccoli, cauliflower, Brussels sprouts, bok choy, and various greens (spinach, turnip, mustard, kale, collard, etc). These are extremely nutritious and have only a mild impact on my blood sugar. I eat a lot of different slaws (all made without sugar) and have several favorite recipes.

Various lettuces, summer (yellow) squash, cucumbers, onions, garlic, peppers, and radishes are also nutritious and have only a mild effect on my blood sugar. Tomatoes, carrots, sweet potatoes, and most beans are also okay, but have a somewhat greater impact on my blood sugar, so I am especially careful about serving size with them.

I've tested these dietary changes on myself, closely monitoring my blood sugar levels, blood pressure, cholesterol levels, testosterone levels, iron levels, and weight as I made these changes. All my numbers are now within normal ranges without insulin or other medication. That's right: after being diagnosed with diabetes with a A1C of 10.1 (very high),  I now maintain an A1C range of 5.5-5.7 without taking insulin, metformin, or any other drug, so I must be doing something right.

My way of eating is similar to the keto diet (but I'm not quite as strict about it as many keto enthuasists are) or even the paleo deit (with a few changes - mainly my being more anti-sugar). My biggest difficulty is eating too much, especially cheese and nuts - both of which are very high in delicious calories! Be careful of portion size.

5) Consume much less refined sugar. I already mentioned reducing sugar, but it bears repeating. Our modern American diet suffers from an extreme excess of sugar. A major contributor to obesity, heart disease, high blood pressure, type II diabetes, and cancer is the high rate of sugar consumption in all its forms, especially high fructose corn syrup. Cut back drastically on the amount of sugar you consume, and when you do use sweeteners, prefer natural sources such as fruit & honey.

6) Make regular visits to a doctor, dentist, and eye-doctor. Had I followed this advice, my diabetes would have been caught much sooner, before my eye problems developed, and would have saved me from the 80+ eye injections and five laser surgeries it took to save my eyesight. Find a doctor you like and are comfortable with, hopefully one who takes a holistic approach to your health care, and believes as strongly in preventing disease as he or she does in curing disease. What constitutes "regular check-ups" depends on your age & health conditions and should be mutually decided on by you and your doctor.

7) Remember that menos is about more than health and fitness. It is also about spiritual and emotional fitness. To that end, here are some tips to address those areas:

• Be a life long learner. Always seek to expand your knowledge base. Read books. Take classes. Watch documentaries. Visit museums and historical sites. Stay up on current affairs. Work crossword puzzles and logic puzzles. Learn a new language.
  
• Deal with any addictions or mental health issues as soon as possible. See my article Prepper's Guide to Mental Health and Emotional Preparedness.
• Develop your relationships with others - your spouse, kids, family, friends, neighbors...
• Find your purpose in life, and pursue it with all you've got!
  
• Get right with God. Don't roll your eyes. This is important. Develop your relationship with God. Read the Bible and pray daily. Go to Church. Follow God's wisdom, not worldly ways. 

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Seven Survival Lessons from the Easter 2019 Sri Lanka Terror Attack

By Timothy Gamble (April 25, 2019)

The horrific Muslim terror attack on Christians in Sri Lanka on Easter, 2019, resulted in more than 300 people dead, and 500 injured. In this tragedy, there are important lessons to be learned. Here are seven lessons from Sri Lanka:

1) The world is highly dangerous. This one should be obvious, but for many people it isn't. The need to believe we are safe and that bad things won't really happen to us is a deeply rooted psychological need. It even has a name, cognitive dissonance. We simply don't like to believe things that make us uncomfortable.

2) Christians are in no way immune from the dangers of this world. Many Christians feel that their being Christian somehow makes them safer. This is not a biblical attitude. In fact, the opposite is true. If you are a traditional, Bible-believing Christian, you have a target painted on your back. In 2 Timothy 3:12, Paul writes "Indeed, all who desire to live godly in Christ Jesus will be persecuted." Jesus himself said "Then they will deliver you to tribulation, and will kill you, and you will be hated by all nations because of My name" in Matthew 24:9. 

3) There is a war on Christians, and people are dying. Despite what the political class and the mainstream media wants you to believe, Christians are by far the most persecuted group of peoples in the world. There are active genocides going on against Christians in Africa and the Middle East, and Christians are heavily persecuted, and even murdered, elsewhere. An Islamic silent invasion is occurring in Europe, and Western Elites are working to undermine our Christian foundations. (Read my articles Anti-Christian Persecution Sharply Increasing Across the Globe  and The Three Existential Threats To America and Western Civilization for more on the War Against Christianity.) 

4) Bad things can happen even when you least expect it. One would think that attending an Easter Service at church would be a safe thing to do. But bad things can and do happen anywhere, at any time. We must always be vigilant.
 
5) We cannot depend on government to protect us. Turns out the government of Sri Lanka had prior intelligence of a possible terror attack targeting Catholic churches being planned, but failed to act on that information. Apparently this was because the country's President and Prime Minister, political rivals, were not sharing information or cooperating with each other. Currently each is blaming the other for the lack of response to the prior intelligence. 

6) Christians must be aware of their security needs. If we cannot depend on the government to protect us, that means we must be responsible for our own security. We want our churches to be open and welcoming to the larger community, but this tragedy and other recent events have shown we do need to think about security also. It will be a balancing act, but one that we need to do.

Security cameras covering the entrances and parking lot are a good idea. Money really isn't an excuse. A multi-camera CCTV system with DVR recorder can be had for around $200 or less (here's one such system on Amazon). Most churches cannot afford paid security, but perhaps they have police officers or military veterans in the congregation who can act as armed security during services. Other aspects of security should also be implemented, such as having emergency exists clearly marked, having first aid supplies (and folks who know how to use them) on the the premises, and creating a well-thought out emergency response plans.

7) We must be prepared to respond to emergencies and mass causality events. Political correctness and TV shows like Doomsday Preppers have given prepping and survivalism a bad name in recent years. Yet, disaster preparedness planning is seriously conducted by big businesses and government agencies, and it needs to be conducted by Christians in both our churches and our homes. It is not pleasant to think about, but it is reality.

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Modern Survival Skills: Avoid Becoming a Victim

By Timothy Gamble (May 2, 2019)

One modern survival skill we all need to develop is the ability to not look like a victim. This is different than situational awareness and being the gray man (blending in), although all three are related skills.

A thought experiment: Think like a bad guy for a minute. You're a thug looking for his next victim. What are you looking for? First and foremost you want an easy mark. Sure, you'd like a target with a lot of value, so that is on your mind too, but only secondarily. You don't want to get caught, hurt, or killed. So you'll take the easy $20 from the apparent pushover instead of the $200 from the tough dude that looks like he can easily handle himself in a fight. Of course, your dream victim is the easy prey that also looks rich. You live for those targets.

Based on the thought experiment, your quest to not become a victim has two main tactics. First, you must avoid looking like an easy target to the bad guy. Second, you must avoid looking like a rich (high value) target to the bad guy.

Avoid looking like an easy target to the bad guy. What can make you appear like an easy target?

• Not paying attention. Most people simply don't pay attention to what's going on around them. They are focused on their phones, engrossed in their I-Pods, or simply walking about absorbed in their thoughts, rather than paying attention to their surroundings. This makes them very vulnerable.
• Lack of self-confidence. People who lack self-confidence give off an obvious vibe. They slouch, keep their heads down, rarely look right at people, never make eye-contact, and seem to purposely ignore their surroundings. They just want to be unseen, which ironically makes them highly visible to the bad guys. 
• Looking unable to defend yourself. Whether you have physical infirmities, appear grossly overweight & out-of-shape, or simply carrying an armload of  packages while wearing high heels, if you look like you cannot defend yourself, the bad guys will take notice.
• Loners. A lone pedestrian or shopper looks like a much easier target than someone with a group of people. 
• Cover of darkness. Darkness, whether the literal darkness of night or the metaphorical darkness of an isolated or hidden place, gives the bad guy great confidence that they can "get the drop on you" and get away without being seen by other people.

Here are some things to do:

• Learn and practice situational awareness (read this article please)
• Don't get distracted by your phone or anything else (pay attention)
• Walk confidently, head up, and make it obvious you are looking at your surroundings
• Take a self-defense course (it will improve your self-confidence)
• Improve your health & fitness
• Wear practical shoes, clothes
• Travel, walk, shop in groups
• Park in a highly visible, well-light location near the entrance

 
Avoid looking like a high-value target to the bad guy. What makes you appear to be a high-value target?

• Observable value. Are you wearing flashy or expensive clothing? Wearing an expensive watch or jewellery? Driving an expensive car? Live in an expensive neighborhood? Bad guys will take note.
• Observable behavior. Did you just visit an ATM? Or walk out of a bank? Then bad guys may assume you now have some extra cash on you. Dis you flash a wad of cash while paying for something? Nearby bad guys took note. Did you get cash back from the cashier while shopping? Those people in line around you saw the cashier hand you the cash. Think about your actions, what you are actually doing at the moment, and how those actions may appear to a bad guy.

Here are some things to do:

• Don't wear expensive clothing and accessories, especially when noticeably nicer than what other people are wearing around you. Try to blend in (gray man)
• Don't drive an expensive car, especially in or near bad areas of town
• Be careful to not let others see how much money you have on you (especially true whenever you take out your wallet to pay for something)
• Pay special attention to your surroundings when you are at or just left a bank or ATM, or after getting cash back at a store (watch especially for people who may be following you)

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Fernando "FerFAL" Aguirre, author of the best seller The Modern Survival Manual: Surviving the Economic Collapse and a long-time advocate for preparedness & survivalism, has a new book out. Street Survival Skills: Tips, Tricks and Tactics for Modern Survival is based on his experiences during and after the economic collapse of Argentina. In it, he explains practical urban survival skills such as Situational awareness, home and street security, everyday carry, dealing with blackouts, survival kits and weapons, how to fight with a gun, knife, bare hands or improvised weapons, how to respond against a terrorist or mass shooter, barricade doors or how to breach them, how to stop a bleeding and carry a casualty, defensive driving, home remedies and many others practical skills.

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GAB: @TimGamble - Mainly a back-up account for when Twitter bans me for being not being a leftist.   

Six Important Survival Skills to Teach Your Children

By Timothy Gamble (March 2019)

Three Basics

1) Attitude of Self-Reliance -- Teach your children to start taking personal responsibility now for their own lives. Taking personal responsibility is the core of self-reliance. And self-reliance is the core of preparedness and survivalism.

Teach them that taking responsibility means doing what needs to be done, not just what is fun or what you want to do. Taking responsibility means not waiting around for others to do it for you. Taking responsibility means not assuming if you don’t do it then someone else will. Take the initiative and do it yourself.

2) Strong Work Ethic -- Having a strong work ethic is a major key to success in life in any situation, not just in survival situations.  Teach your children the value of hard work. Hard work is good, healthy, and effective. Its importance is revealed throughout God's Word. The idea of "an honest day's work for an honest day's pay" is part of the traditional American value system.

Children, even young children, should have chores that they are expected to do. And make them actually do their chores. Of course, the chores should be age-appropriate, but their responsibilities should increase as they grow older and gain maturity and skills. Older children can work part-time jobs outside the home. You are not helping your kids by shielding them from hard work.

3) Biblical and Traditional Values -- Teach your children to have a relationship with God. Make prayer, scripture reading, and worship a regular part of their lives. Teach them the Commandments and the teachings of Jesus. Teach them to look to the perfection of God's Word as the ultimate authority for what is right and wrong, instead of the whim of worldly opinion. Don't just teach them what you believe, but why you believe it. Prepare them for a world that is telling them that Biblical and traditional values are wrong. 

Also, teach them traditional American values - including the importance of individual freedom & self-reliance, the importance of our Constitution and the Bill of Rights, the importance of private property rights (see my article), the morality of real capitalism (an excellent book on the subject by Fr Robert Sirico), the value of hard work, the value of human life, common decency towards others, and the traditional monogamous family unit as the basic building block of society. Be sure to teach them that our rights come from God, not from government.

Three Additional Shills

4) First Aid (including knowledge of wild medicinals) -- If your children are old enough to be in school, they are old enough to learn basic first aid. They can advance their skills as they grow older.

I would also start teaching them early on how to identify wild edibles and medicinals, adding to their skill sets collecting, preserving and using wild medicinals, as they mature. Consider having them start and tend a medicinal herb garden. Again, start with the basics, and help them grow their skills as they get older.

5) Self-Defense Skills -- Teach your children situational awareness, which is more than just paying attention to what is going on around you, though that is an important start. It means both knowing what to look for, and how to assess (make decisions about) your surroundings. Check out my article on Situational Awareness and start teaching your children these skills.

I also urge parents to enroll your children in a good martial arts class. Learning a martial art such as karate or judo can be a fun hobby, provide considerable health and fitness benefits, improve self-confidence, and is a life-long self-defense skill set.

If your family or group has guns, then your children need to learn gun safety at a very young age. A good resources on gun safety for kids are the Eddie Eagle GunSafe Club (a program of the NRA), and the book Toys, Tools, Guns & Rules: A Children's Book About Gun Safety (for younger children).

It is up to you to judge the maturity level of your children and decide when they should start firearms training. I grew up around guns and was shooting and hunting with my grandfathers by the time I was 8 or 9. They were with me to provide guidance and supervision, but I was carrying and shooting my own gun (a .410 shotgun). I also had to help clean anything I shot, even at that early age.

6) Gardening Skills -- This covers planting, growing and preserving food, as well as saving seeds for the next year.  Have your kids help with your garden, or even set aside a small part as their garden (letting them choose what to plant and making them do the bulk of the work). I realize this may be difficult to do in the city, but perhaps you can join in a community garden in your area, or encourage your church to start one. At the very least, take your children on a field trip to a farm so they can learn that food comes from somewhere other than the store. 

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GAB: @TimGamble - Mainly a back-up account for when Twitter bans me for being not being a leftist.  

Intermediate Prepping - Your next steps after covering the basics.

By Timothy Gamble (December 17, 2019)

You've been prepping for some time now. You're no longer a newbie, and you have the basics covered. Now what?

No Longer a Newbie

Those new to prepping should concentrate on preparing for short-term emergencies, ranging from a few days to a few weeks. This will mostly consist of stockpiling maybe a month's worth of food, water & other supplies, acquiring some basic gear such as first aid kits, fire extinguishers, emergency radios & flashlights, and acquiring a few skills such as first aid and a self-reliant mindset. You should have also developed a family communications plan and a short-term bug-out plan, including where to go and how to get there. This is a great start, better than 90% of the general population. (To make sure you've covered these basics, see my articles New to prepping? Here are your next steps and A quick, no frills, down & dirty guide to preparing for the End.)

Now its time to turn your attention to longer-term emergencies, which may last months instead of just days or weeks. This next level of prepping & survivalism is what many folks call Intermediate Prepping. There are no hard and fast rules on what exactly constitutes intermediate prepping, other than it builds on the basics that you (hopefully) covered in the beginning of your prepper journey. 

My take on intermediate prepping is:

• to expand your preparedness stockpile
• to develop the plans & skills needed for a longer-term emergency 
• to develop a survival mindset that you incorporate into your everyday life

Expand your preparedness stockpile.  

One of the first things you probably did early in your prepper journey was to build a prepper stockpile. You acquired at least a couple of weeks' worth of food, water, and other supplies. This should carry you through a short-term event, such as a winter storm, when you can't get to a store for a brief period of time. But, what if the emergency lasts longer than a few weeks? Now is the time to expand your prepper stockpile from a few weeks', or even a couple of months', worth of supplies, to at least six month's worth. A year's worth is even better.

This is typically the easiest part of prepping, as it usually amounts to just buying more stuff (but coming up with the money to do so can certainly be challenging). But as you move beyond just a few weeks' worth of stuff, you are going to start to encounter some problems. Here are a few ideas on how to handle those challenges:

• Frozen and refrigerated foods don't count for long-term food storage. This is because once the power goes out, they will quickly go bad. Instead, you will have to depend on foods that don't require electricity to store, such as canned and dried foods.
• Perishable items, such as milk, cheese, butter, and eggs are problematic for long-term storage. Your best bet is powdered, dehydrated or freeze-dried products, but this option an be expensive. For my money, Augason Farms has the best selection, excellent quality, and are reasonably priced. 
• Its easy to get caught up in food & water storage and forget about other supplies. Make sure to stock up on cleaning & hygiene supplies, first aid supplies, medicine & medical supplies, batteries, sturdy clothes & shoes, ammo, and repair supplies (tools, nails, screws, duct tape, gorilla tape, sewing supplies, etc.), and other supplies you may need.
• Don't forget about your vehicles. Learn how to safely store gasoline, and be sure to stock up oil, filters, transmission fluid, brake fluid, spare wipers, and other supplies to keep your vehicle running as long as possible. Naturally, you'll want to learn how to maintain and rdo basic repairs on your vehicles.
  
• Water, being very bulky and heavy, is difficult to store in large quantities. You can buy and install large water tanks, but most folks will need to learn how to collect and treat water for a long term solution. Make sure you have the supplies to do so.

Check out my article Emergency Water Storage for more on water storage.

Develop the plans & skills needed for a longer-term emergency.

Intermediate preppers need to understand and plan for the potential consequences of a "grid down" situation, particularly one that lasts for months or longer before things even begin to return to normal.

A disaster usually will result in the temporary or permanent loss of many of the “comforts of civilization” we are used to enjoying. Comforts of civilization are those things that are provided to us by modern civilization that we tend to take for granted. It would be difficult for most modern people to provide many of these things for themselves, especially without learning new skills, stockpiling tools and supplies, and preparing well in advance for their loss.

These comforts of civilization we may lose include:

   * Readily available running water that is safe to drink.
   * Readily available food from stores and restaurants.
   * “Flush and forget” human waste disposal.
   * Modern medicine and health care.
   * Readily available electricity for lighting, heating, cooling, cooking and hot water.
   * Readily available natural gas for heating, cooking and hot water.
   * Readily available liquid fuel for cars, trucks, tractors and planes.
   * Instant long distance communication (phones, email, etc.).
   * Ready access to education.
   * Ready access to emergency services such as fire, police, and paramedics.
   * Most modern luxuries (television, IPods, computers & the Internet, etc.)
   * Ability to spend money without having it (credit cards, mortgages, installment plans, etc.)

How will the loss of these modern luxuries affect you and your family? When the tap water stops running, and your water storage is used up, what will you do then? (Answer: Before it happens, learn various ways to collect and treat water.) When your food storage runs out, and the grocery store shelves are still bare, how will you feed your family? (Possible answers: Before it happens, learn how to garden, hunt, fish, forage for wild edibles, raise chickens for eggs & meat...) 

How will you stay warm and heat your home without electricity or natural gas? How will you buy things when cash is worthless and the credit card and banking system is down? These are the type of questions you need to ask yourself, and start making contingency plans now before it happens. These contingency plans will likely require learning new skills, making attitude adjustments, and acquiring special gear and supplies.
 
Develop a survival mindset.

Sure, part of developing a survival mindset is simply realizing that you do need to be prepared for future emergencies, but there is so much more to it. Survivalism is, at its heart, about rejecting the modern way of thinking - dependency, entitlement, selfishness, obliviousness, and a "sheep mentality" - and embracing a mentality of self-reliance, personal responsibility, industriousness, awareness, and perseverance. It is also about incorporating this new mindset into your everyday life, not just during an emergency.  

It is difficult to develop and practice these traits in a modern world that seems geared to the opposite. Here are some articles that may help:

• What Exactly is Self-Reliance? (on this website)
• Skills Every Real Man Should Have  (on this website)
• How To Not Panic In An Emergency (on this website)
• Prepper's Guide to Situational Awareness and the OODA Loop - this article has been called "the best guide to situational awareness available on the Internet" (on this website) 
• How to Practice Perseverance (on an external website)

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Fernando "FerFAL" Aguirre, author of the best seller The Modern Survival Manual: Surviving the Economic Collapse and a long-time advocate for preparedness & survivalism, has a new book out. Street Survival Skills: Tips, Tricks and Tactics for Modern Survival is based on his experiences during and after the economic collapse of Argentina. In it, he explains practical urban survival skills such as Situational awareness, home and street security, everyday carry, dealing with blackouts, survival kits and weapons, how to fight with a gun, knife, bare hands or improvised weapons, how to respond against a terrorist or mass shooter, barricade doors or how to breach them, how to stop a bleeding and carry a casualty, defensive driving, home remedies and many others practical skills. 
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Dystopian Survival - Going "Old-School"

By Timothy Gamble

{You might want to also read my article Understanding Preparedness - Loss of Comforts of Civilization for all the ways the world will change in any post grid-down situation.}

In any future long-term grid-down scenario, we will be living in a new world. Excuse me, I mean an old world. We will loose most of the modern conveniences we've grown accustomed to in this age of high tech, the Internet, Amazon, and a throw-away economy of disposable goods. We will suddenly be thrust back into a world in which our grandparents and great grandparents lived. For most of us this will be a hard adjustment to make.We need to start thinking now about how people used to live back in the "Olden Times." And to start planning how we can live there ourselves.

Take something as simple as entertainment and recreation. Modern entertainment typically revolves around screen time: TV, movies, video games, smart phones, and so forth. But our grandparents, and definitely our great grandparents, didn't have these options. They had to entertain themselves. Shocking, right? I mean, how on earth did they do that? Well, they read books made of paper (barbaric, right?). They played card games and board games, told stories, made their own music, and got together with neighbors to celebrate holidays and special occasions. To go old school, maybe pick up some classic board games (you know, the ones that don't require electricity or batteries) and a few decks of cards. Or maybe learn a (non-electric) musical instrument (I want to learn to play the harmonica). Many other possibilities exist.

Another example: In today's modern times, there are plenty of readily available doctors, hospitals, pharmacies, and other medical options for when we get sick. In Olden Times, doctors were scarce, especially in rural areas and small towns. When folks got sick, they usually had to rely on Mom's chicken soup, or Grandma's home remedies. In other words, do-it-yourself healthcare was the first line of defense. To go old school, start figuring out how to take care of your and your family's health yourself. Pick up a few good books on home remedies and herbal medicine.   

More Examples

Modern: Riding lawn mower for cutting grass.
Old School: Reel Mower (no gas required).

Modern: Computer/printer.
Old School: Manual typewriter.

Modern: Washing machine and dryer.
Old School: Hand washing and clotheslines.

Modern: Electric mixer.
Old School: Hand mixer.

Modern: Electric can opener.
Old School: Manual can opener.

Modern: Take-out, microwaves.
Old-School: Cooking from scratch, cast-iron cookware (gas stoves, wood stoves, outdoor cooking).

Modern: The Internet, Wikipedia.
Old School: Reference books (paper!), the library.

Modern: GPS, Google Maps.
Old School: Road atlas, folding maps.

Modern: Credit & debit cards, ETFs.
Old School: Cash, silver coins, barter.

Modern: Debt, installment plans, rent-to-own.
Old School: Delay purchase until you can save the money (modern folks are going to have a real hard time with this one). 

Modern: Baby formula, store-bought baby food in tiny jars.
Old School: Breast feeding, making baby food at home.

Modern: Disposable diapers.
Old School: Cloth diapers.

This is, of course, only a very limited list - merely some examples to get you thinking.  There are lots and lots that can be added to this list. The point is to start thinking through how your world will change if and when the grid goes down. Then, start taking steps to prepare.
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On Social Media:

Twitter: @DystopianSurv - My account specifically for this website. 99% prepping, survivalist, and homesteading tweets. Few, if any, posts on politics.

Twitter: @TimGamble - My main account. Survivalist information, plus heavy on news, politics and economics.

GAB: @TimGamble - Mainly a back-up account for when Twitter bans me for being not being a leftist.

The Thucydides Trap and the War With China

By Timothy Gamble (Orginally published on TimGamble.com, August 23, 2019)

The current trade war with China is only a prelude to what is coming. China is preparing for what it considers an inevitable "hot" war with America within the next 10 years. China is convinced this war must happen because of a concept known as the Thucydides Trap. 

The Thucydides Trap isn't some conspiracy theory twaddle, but is a well-studied historical concept heavily discussed in academic and diplomatic circles. Very simply, the Thucydides Trap states that when a rising great power (China, in this instance) threatens to displace an existing great power (in this case, America), a war that will almost certainly lead to the destruction of one of the great powers is almost always inevitable.
 
The Chinese are very aware of this concept, and are actively making policy based on it. Again, this is known and discussed within diplomatic circles (i.e. cannot be dismissed as a conspiracy theory, but rather is known fact). It is the basis of their ongoing massive military build-up, as well as their interference in North Korea (the Chinese have always assisted North Korea with their nuclear and missile programs, and are pushing Kim Jong-un to stall in regards to denuclearization). It is also part of the reasoning behind their aggressiveness in the South China Sea (control over vital trade routes), including their building of artificial islands & military bases, as well as their economic & diplomatic push into South America and Africa (the later which includes a growing military presence), to obtain various resources. 

Take a look at a few recent headlines during the past week alone:

• Chinese military aircraft conducted drills simulating targeting of MSDF warships in East China Sea 
• How China's Military Is Becoming Stronger 
• Report: China's military could overwhelm U.S. forces in Indo-Pacific region
• China could overwhelm US in military first strike, Australian report says 
• China's Military Is Ready For War: Everything You Need to Know.
• China suspected of flooding U.S. universities with students to access sensitive programs in ‘academic espionage’ campaign
• Arms Racing With China: Land Based Missiles 
• Disturbing images may suggest China has boosted its military in Hong Kong
•  Red China Aligns with Dems to Swing the 2020 Election

When Will This War Happen? 

An honest answer: I don't know. What I do know is that China is preparing for a hot war with the United States. I assume they are waiting for the right moment to strike, a moment when they feel ready and believe the US is at its weakest. I suspect they will wait to see what happens in the 2020 election (notice the last headline posted above is about China already meddling in support of the Democrats in the 2020 elections). 

I also know that we need to start preparing, as a nation and as individuals, for the coming war with China. History says it is almost certainly inevitable. The clock is ticking.
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How to Survive the End of the World as We Know It: Tactics, Techniques, and Technologies for Uncertain Times, by James Wesley, Rawles.  Rawles is a well-known name within the survivalist community, and this book gives coverage of most topics within survivalism and prepping, not just food storage and bugging out.


  


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