Wednesday, November 27, 2019

Survivalist's Guide to Situational Awareness and the OODA Loop

By Timothy Gamble (January 21, 2018)

Situational awareness is more than just paying attention to what is going on around you, though that is an important start. It means both knowing what to look for, and how to assess (make decisions about) your surroundings.

The end goal for situational awareness is correct action. The bridge from simply paying attention to taking correct action is the OODA-Loop. OODA Loop is an acronym for Observe, Orient, Decide, and Act. The Loop aspect is that one should be constantly looping through OODA since situations and circumstances change constantly. Credit for the OODA Loop goes to military strategist John Boyd. More on the OODA Loop later in this article.

What is Situational Awareness? 

Scott Stewart of  Statfor.com defines situational awareness as "being aware of one's surroundings and identifying potential threats and dangerous situations." That is an okay definition as for as it goes, but is primarily limited to immediate (in both time and location), physical and external threats, and it doesn't talk about the end goal of correct action.

A better definition of situational awareness should incorporate the concept of "environmental scanning" from the business world (especially public relations).  BusinessDictionary.com defines environmental scanning as "careful monitoring of an organization's internal and external environments for detecting early signs of opportunities and threats that may influence its current and future plans."

This definition looks for opportunities as well as threats. It expands the scope beyond the immediate, to include developing trends that may lead to future threats and opportunities. It includes not just danger from physical threats, but other threats (political, financial, etc.) as well. Finally, it adds the idea of not just looking at the external situation, but also the internal situation. 

What is the OODA Loop?

Original diagram by John Boyd. This graphic by Patrick Edwin Moran, used under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported license.


As stated earlier, the OODA Loop is an acronym by
military strategist and Korean War veteran John Boyd. Presented above (click it for bigger image) is a flowchart of how OODA Loop works, and the following is a (simplistic) explanation of its main points:

   Observe: Paying attention to the environment in which we are operating, noting potential threats and opportunities, in order to quickly gain the knowledge and understanding we need for decision making. Key concept: Observing should be continual, as our environment is constantly changing. 

   Orient: The orient phase is where you apply your mental models to what you observe, in order to arrive at your understanding of your situation. Mental models are the way we understand the world; the system by which we think. This is perhaps the most complex, and critical, part of the OODA Loop. According to Boyd, it is not the one with the most information that wins, but rather it is the one with the best understanding of the information they have that wins.

Economist Richard J. Maybury explains models this way: "As we go through life, we build these very complex pictures in our minds of how the world works, and we are constantly referring back to them - matching incoming data against our models. That's how we make sense of things."

Many things contribute to the models we use - our family influences, cultural heritage, religious beliefs, education, training, personal experiences,  and so forth. The key to orienting our understanding is to develop many mental models and to constantly refine or improve those models in a process Boyd calls "destructive deduction" - the examining, tearing apart, and rebuilding of those models.  This process leads to improving your judgement.

   Decide - In the decision phase of the OODA Loop, you determine your best course of action based on your your judgement (using your mental models) of your observations.  For example, you might decide to continue walking down the street because you observe no potential dangers. Or you may decide to cross over to the other side or even go back based on your judgement that the two thuggish-looking men eyeing you as you approach are potentially dangerous. 

   Act - In the action phase, you do something (take an action) based on the decision you made using your judgment of your observations. That action may be continuing to do what you were doing, or it mifght mean taking a new or different action. 

This last phase of the OODA Loop is not the final phase (remember, the concept is OODA Loop, meaning you constantly loop through the phases). You may need to adjust your action based on changing circumstances. For example, when you cross the street to avoid those two thuggish-looking men, you may need to immediately take another action if they then cross the street, too, in order to intercept your path.

In order to emphasize the constant looping nature of the OODA Loop, Boyd would write "hypothesis" beside "Decision," and "test" beside "Act." Every decision is really your hypothesis of what is the best decision in a particular situation, and every action is really a test of that decision. 

A Mindset

Situational awareness is an attitude - a mindset. It is something you need to consciously do on a continuous basis as you go about your normal day-to-day activities. Make it a habit.

Realize that you need to be aware of your surroundings everywhere you go. Don't let your guard down just because you are somewhere you feel safe. Bad things don't just happen in bad neighborhoods, but can happen in good neighborhoods as well.

Know what is "normal" for where you are and what's going on around you (knowing what is "normal" is a mental model). Pay close attention to anything that is outside the expected normal. Observe what is going own around you, and evaluate it against what you would expect to be happening (your models).

Part of observing is being able to actually see what is going own. Physically position yourself to be able to see what is happening around you. This means seating with your back to a wall rather than turning your back on the room. It means seating where you can observe doors and windows. It means parking in a well-light, highly visible spot. It means avoiding dark alleys.

Don't get so focused on something that you tune out everything else going on around you. This is sometimes called focus-lock. Avoid so locking your focus on your smart phone, a conversation, the attractive lady in a mini-skirt that just walked by, or anything else to the point you aren't paying attention to anything else.

Micro and Macro

There are two types of situational awareness - the micro and the macro. Both are should be practiced. Micro looks at your immediate surroundings (your neighborhood, your workplace, the store you're in, the people around you, the parking lot, the road you're driving on, and so forth). Macro looks at the bigger picture, such as local, regional, national and international events that may affect you in some way.

   Micro: As you go about your day, maintain awareness of your physical surroundings. This is the people and activity where you are at the moment. Don't get so involved with your smart phone or anything else that you ignore what is going on around you. Stay aware of your immediate surroundings and any potential risks and threats. Are you parking in a highly visible, well-light location near the entrance to minimize chances of ambush & muggings?

Pay attention to the people around you and what they are doing. Is anyone acting suspicious or nervous? Is anyone loitering, or otherwise looks out-of-place? Are you making yourself a target by wearing expensive, flashy clothes & accessories, or driving an expensive car? Before getting out of a car or walking out of a building, do you look out a window first to identify possible dangers?

   Macro: Stay informed of the news (local, national, global). Know your elected officials in Washington, and keep up with what they are doing. Especially pay attention to the flow of money - who are their donors?, who benefits from their efforts?, how are they spending your money? How will any pending legislation affect you? Same goes for your elected officials on the state and local level.

Know your community and how it works: Who are its local politicians, important bureaucrats, community leaders? What are the local power & water sources? How well do you know the roads in and around your community? (hint: you shouldn't need GPS or google maps to find your way around where you live without getting lost.) Do you know the "bad areas" of town to avoid? Pay close attention to economic and business news. How well is your company and industry doing? (Layoffs are never really a surprise to those paying close attention.)  Do you know how safe & stable your bank and insurance companies are? Pay attention to their bottom lines and management shake-ups to avoid nasty surprises. 

How Might It Affect Me?

When looking for future threats, ask yourself:  How might it affect me?

For example, if you hear about a new shopping center to be built near your neighborhood, ask How will that new shopping center affect me? Answers might be positive - such as shorter shopping trips, more employment opportunities, and increased home value. And, the answers might  be negative, such as more traffic, higher crime, or more pollution.

Think about how the actions of the local government, such as annexations and changes in zoning laws, might affect you.

Also, consider the how changing economic conditions in your area might affect you. A local factory closing and laying off 100s of people might affect you in many ways, even if you don't work there. Think through how the actions of others (government, businesses, people) might affect you.

Don't Forget the Internal

We mostly think of threats coming from outside, but often threats come from within ourselves. How is your health - physical and emotional? Are you gaining weight? Losing fitness? Developing health problems? Developing addictions or bad habits? Notice your eyesight getting worse? Are you maintaining your current job skills?  Are you learning the new job skills you need? Are you sinking into credit card debt? When is the last time your went to the gun range? Are you as good a shot as you used to be? When is the last time you had a first aid refresher course? Situational awareness needs to include an honest appraisal of yourself.

Don't forget about your stuff. Be aware of any developing problems with your home or vehicle. Are you going to need a new roof anytime soon? Are the batteries in your smoke detector getting weak? Are your car's brakes starting to squeak?
 

Tuesday, November 26, 2019

A quick, no frills, down & dirty guide to preparing for the End

By Timothy Gamble (March 28, 2015)

Observing the world around them, many folks have come to the conclusion that the End is near - the End of the dollar, the End of freedom, the End of Western Civilization, the End of the current economic and political systems, etc... Whether this is intentionally planned by the Elites or the inevitable result of decades of bad decisions & general incompetence, its easy to see why many feel this way...

So, how can we prepare? Here is a quick, no frills down & dirty guide to preparing for the End:

1) Stock up on food, water, cleaning & hygiene supplies, first aid supplies, medicine & medical supplies, flashlights, radios, batteries, tools, sturdy clothes & shoes, etc. The End will mean a massive disruption in the supply chain for goods and services. In other words, the shelves at Wal-mart, Target, Lowe's, Home Depot, Sears, and your local grocery, hardware, and clothing stores will quickly be emptied, and likely will not be re-stocked for months, if ever. Stock up now for an extended period of time in which you will not be able to buy what you need.

2) Buy a gun and learn how to use it. Stock up on ammo. Chaos & violence will be a major feature of the End. And the police won't be there to protect you (and may even be a big part of the problem). The protection of yourself & your family will be - IS - your responsibility.

3) Stock up on fuel. Gasoline, diesel, oil, etc., will get EXTREMELY expensive, if it is available at all. Keep your tanks topped off, and store extra if you can do so SAFELY. Even a few 5-gallon gas cans full will be a tremendous help.

4) Find a relatively safe place to ride out the End. A big city or urban center probably won't be a safe place. Consider instead an out-of-the-way small town or rural area. You may want to go ahead and move there, or at least have a good bug-out plan and vehicle to get their as the End comes.

5) Turn your paper wealth into tangible wealth. Cash, stocks, bonds, etc. will become worthless, so turn them into real, tangible, wealth before the End. This means the food, guns, ammo and other supplies. It also means a home/homestead/land - somewhere relatively safe & productive to ride out the End. It may also mean buying gold, silver, and other tangible storehouses of wealth.

6) Figure out who you can really trust and depend on in a crisis. Crises bring out the best in some people and the worst in others. Desperate people don't always make the best choices. How well do you know the people in your life? Build your team, community, tribe, network, or whatever you want to call it, now. Plan together now for what to do when the End gets here. Plan on how to safely communicate with each other.

7) Pay attention to the world around you. The timing of converting your paper wealth to real wealth is the real trick. Exactly when the End will come is uncertain. Could be next week, next month, next year... You will need some cash to pay bills and live off of until then, so don't go out and immediately get rid of ALL your cash. You still need it. You'll have to pay close attention to what is going on in the world around you. Get your economic and political news from a variety of sources, and think things through using commonsense and reason.

8) Learn as many skills as possible, and work on improving your health & fitness. While waiting for the End, be diligent in improving your health & fitness, and learning a variety of skills. Stop smoking now. Address any addictions you have. Start eating right. Build your strength & endurance. Learn first aid and CPR. Learn self-defense shooting, and other self-defense skills. Learn to garden, to preserve food, to hunt & fish, to sew, to maintain & repair your vehicles,

And that is the no frills, down & dirty guide to preparing for the End. There are lots and lots of details that can be added. Lots of different strategies and tactics within this framework of preparing for the End. Your exact details will be determined by your own unique circumstances and personal concerns. Whatever you do, start getting ready NOW. Time may be running out.

Start taking responsibility for your own life now.

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Monday, November 25, 2019

Prepper's Guide to Junk Silver

By Tim Gamble (July 2, 2014)

An updated version of this article was published in 2025 on Wealth From Chaos (article link).

It is common advice within the prepper community to have some "junk" silver as a hedge against inflation and an alternative means of exchange in case of a collapse of the dollar. This article is meant as a Prepper's Guide to Junk Silver.

Precious metals, such as gold and silver, have been widely accepted as a form of economic exchange (currency) for all of human history. Unlike paper currency, gold and silver cannot be mass "printed" by governments and therefore cannot be "devalued" by inflation or government policy. If governments try to outlaw the use of gold and silver as a means of economic exchange, even banning private ownership, its long and universally recognized history as a form of currency ensues a robust black market. Therefore, gold and silver are seen as a solid hedge against inflation, a safe storehouse of wealth, and an alternative means of economic exchange during and after any economic crisis, including the collapse of the dollar.

What is Junk Silver?  The term junk silver is a bit misleading. Coins described as junk silver are by no means "junk" and can be quite valuable due to their silver content. The term is only meant to distinguish coins with little or no collectible premium above their silver content from coins that do have a collectible premium (rare coins, higher grade coins, key dates, errors, etc.).

Junk silver coins are mostly circulated coins (which show wear) from before 1965 and which typically contain 90% silver. Most coins minted in 1965 and later contain no silver. There are a few exceptions, which are noted on the chart below.


Remember, junk silver coins are those with little or no collector premium above the silver content. Many high-grade coins, rare coins, key dates, and errors have a collectible premium, and therefore are not true "junk" silver since they may be worth considerably more than their silver content.

How much is Junk Silver worth?  The price of silver changes almost daily (actually constantly throughout the day). You can check financial websites for the current price.

You can figure out how much you are being charged for the silver in junk 90% silver coins by applying the .715 rule (there is .715 troy ounce of silver per $1 of face value of 90% silver US coins, of any combination). First, divide the amount being asked by the face amount of the coins to get the amount being asked per $1 of face value. Then divide that amount by .715, and the result is how much per ounce of silver is being asked.

Example: Ten Washington silver quarters are being sold for $43. How much is being asked per ounce of silver? Face value being sold is $2.50 (10 X .25). Asking price of $43 divided by face value of $2.50 is $17.20, which is the amount you are paying per $1 of face value. $17.20 divided by .715 is $24.06. Therefore, you would be paying $24.06 per ounce of silver.

Please note that the .715 rule doesn't work with war nickels, 40% Kennedy halves, 40% Eisenhower dollars, and Silver Eagles because the silver content for those isn't 90%.

Another way to find out the melt value of coins is to look on the website coinflation.com.

When you sell to coin dealers, you can expect them to offer you less for your junk silver coins than the silver content is actually worth. Remember, this is how the dealers make a living, so you cannot expect full price from them. Most dealers will offer between 60% and 90% depending on several factors, including what exactly you are selling and the demand for junk silver that they are currently experiencing from there customers. If you feel their offer is too low, make a counter offer or try a different dealer.

Why Junk Silver?  In case of an economic crisis, including a collapse of the US dollar, there will be a need for an alternative to the dollar as a means of economic exchange. Barter (I'll give you a dozen eggs in exchange for a gallon of milk) will be one means of exchange, but there are difficulties with barter, which is why coinage developed in the first place.

Gold will be useful for large purchases (such as a home), but will be too valuable to be practical for small purchases (such as a dozen eggs).

Silver coins, on the other hand, will be much more convenient for smaller purchases. And since the value of junk silver coins comes mostly from their metal content, and since they come in denominations and designs the general public are already familiar with, they will be quickly and easily accepted as a form of currency.

How much do I need?  How much you junk silver you need to include in your preps is something you will need to figure out for yourself, and will depend on what your personal concerns and circumstances are, and how much you can reasonably afford. I will say that acquiring a lot of junk silver is something you should only do after covering the basics of your prepping (food, water, and other supplies), and that you should never go into debt to buy junk silver.

What types of silver coins should I get?  That is up to you, but I stick with circulated US dimes, quarters, and halves that are 90% silver. These are easily recognizable by the general public, and I avoid any possible confusion over the 35% and 40% coins. I also don't have to concern myself with any collectible premium.

Morgan and Peace dollars would also may be good choices, but are somewhat less recognizable by the general public. Silver Eagles (which I do also collect, but don't consider part of my junk silver) aren't circulated and carry a collectible premium.

Foreign coins and commemorative coins may contain silver, but will be much less recognized and accepted by the general public, so I avoid them.

Where do I get Junk Silver?  There are a lot of places you can get silver coins. Start by looking through the change you already have in your pockets, piggy bank, or that jar you drop loose change in when you empty your pockets at night. Be sure to always check the change you get everyday. Though uncommon, there are still some silver coins in circulation.

You can buy rolls of dimes, quarters, and halves from your bank. You can then search the rolls looking for silver coins, then return the rest. There is no risk in this method, since even if you find no silver coins, you still have the same face value that you bought. It is a bit of a hassle for the banks, so some banks/tellers may be a bit grumpy about it, but most will work with you. Search You Tube for Coin Roll Hunting for more information.

You can also buy unsearched rolls of coins from coin dealers and off of eBay, but these will usually charge a slight premium over face. Also, how do you know if the rolls are truly unsearched? I personally would not buy unsearched rolls unless I knew and trusted the dealer very well.

Visit local coin dealers. They will have a lot of junk silver coins you can buy, both loose and by the roll. You will pay a slight premium over the price of the silver content (but that is how the dealer makes a living). How much a premium will vary from dealer to dealer, and will depend on how much and what exactly you are buying.

Shop on eBay. Do an eBay search for Junk Silver and you will get pages of results to shift through. Be cautious! Especially with dealers who are not local to you. Pay attention to their customer reviews and feedback score; deal only with established dealers with very high scores. Read carefully the written description of the item and make sure you know what you are bidding on (don't go just by the photo). Make a small test purchase from a dealer first to see how it goes before making any larger purchases from that dealer.

Visit local flea markets, antique shops, and yard sales. You can often find coins being sold by non-dealers who don't pay close attention to the daily fluctuations in the price of silver. The opportunity is for some really great bargains.

You can also buy from the many large gold and silver brokers that often advertise on talk radio and the financial cable networks.

So, Junk Silver is a good investment?  Maybe. Maybe not. I am not discussing junk silver as an investment, but rather as a storehouse of wealth, a hedge against inflation, and a potential alternative to paper money as currency. I buy junk silver in order to protect my purchasing power, not in hopes of making a return on an investment. 
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Monday, November 18, 2019

Dystopian Survival Skills - A New List for a Dangerous Future

By Timothy Gamble

Dystopian dis-ˈtō-pē-ən adj.: 1) of, relating to, or being a world or society in which most people lead wretched, dehumanized, fearful lives; 2) a world of high technology, marked by authoritarian government and powerful corporations, with a huge divide between a privileged elite, and a disempowered underclass they rule over.

In science fiction, a dystopian world is typically presented as one in which a small class of elites use a combination of authoritarian government, powerful & wealthy corporations, and highly advanced technology, to rule over the common people. The world the elite create for themselves is one of extreme wealth, power, and privilege. It is created at the expense of a much larger underclass, who have slowly lost their personal liberties, economic freedoms, and privacy rights. A deep network of unelected bureaucrats and corrupt politicians, often financed and aided by the deep pockets of the corporate elite, work diligently to entrench this new order into the regulations, laws and treaties governing their world.

The propaganda used by the elites to justify this situation is marked by twisting seemingly positive words such as progress, equality, fairness, and diversity in ways to fit their agenda. This twisting of language, a creating of newspeak, is made possible by their near monopolistic control of the news media, popular culture, and academia. Traditional institutions and ideas, such as the family, God, and patriotism, are intentionally ridiculed and destroyed, leaving government as the only remaining source of authority and focus for loyalty. Thus, this new order is firmly accepted in the minds of most of the disempowered underclass. 

Sound familiar? If this is a description of a dystopian future, then the future is now. No longer in the realm of science fiction, dystopia is playing out before our eyes, if only we are willing to look. And it is not going away anytime soon. Dystopia is rising.

But what does that mean to preppers and survivalists? What difference does it make what the threat is? How is preparing for the reality of dystopia any different from preparing for anything else we are preparing for?

In modern prepper and survivalist fiction, the storyline typically goes something like this:
  • Things have been getting bad of awhile 
  • The "sheeple"  aren't paying attention, suffering from normalcy bias, dumbed down by public education, and bought off by "free stuff" from the government
  • At some point there is a Trigger Event (SHTF) that causes a relatively quick collapse 
  • The Trigger Event is followed by a period (a few months to at most a few years) of intense anarchy, violence, and even civil war
  • Modern infrastructure collapses
  • Many of the sheeple are shocked out of their long slumber by this harsh reality
  • The sheeple that don't wake up, die
  • Eventually, the good guys (the newly awakened sheeple, lead by preppers & survivalists) win!!!
  • The world is saved, the Republic is restored, and our rights are protected for all time to come
  • Technology is still around, but plays a smaller role, controlled in a way to be less prone to abuse
Sounds great. However, it is far more fantasy than anything else. The emerging reality of dystopia will be much longer lasting, less obvious, and more brutal. And there will not be a happy ending anytime soon.

Here is how I see dystopia unfolding: 
  • Things have been getting bad of awhile 
  • The "sheeple"  aren't paying attention, suffering from normalcy bias, dumbed down by public education, and bought off by "free stuff" from the government
  • Things actually get even better for the elite class, as their wealth, power, and privilege increase
  • Things continue to get worse for the underclass (which is most of us), as our freedoms, opportunities, and privacy continue to erode
  • There is no Trigger Event
  • Most of the Sheeple don't wake up (a few do, but not nearly enough)
  • A new, permanent civilization emerges, with a very small elite class ruling over all, a small (much smaller than currently) middle class serving the ruling elites, and a very large underclass, living small, desperate, fearful lives
  • Technology grows ever more powerful, and is successfully used by the elite to control the underclass
Not very pleasant sounding, is it? But I would argue that it is the emerging reality.

In the prepper and survivalist fantasy scenario, emphasis is placed on those things that would help us survive a short-term emergency and collapse - food and water storage, homesteading skills, wilderness survival skills, and so on. While those skills are useful and important, they don't go far enough for survival in a true dystopian future.

Dystopian Survival Situations: 
  • Loss of Freedoms & Privacy (directly though legislation such as "hate speech" and "red flag" laws, or indirectly, via political correctness, Big Tech censorship & data mining, etc.)
  • Continued (and intentional) breakdown of traditional institutions such as the Family and the Church
  • Recession, Job Loss, High Inflation, and Economic Turmoil
  • Workforce Displacement via technology
  • Political Turmoil & Police State Actions  
  • Civil Unrest, including Riots & Looting
  • Identity Theft 
  • Cyber Threats 
  • Violent Crime 
  • Active Shooter Situations 
  • Terrorism 
  • Epidemics & Pandemics 
Knowing how to build an emergency shelter or start a fire in the rain probably won't do you much good in most of those scenarios. Not that there is anything wrong with those skills. They are useful and are worth learning. But there are many other skills that you should also learn in order to survive dystopia.

Dystopian Survival Skills

Dystopian survival starts with awareness of potential problems and developing self-reliance. 

Awareness requires us to take an honest look at the dangers of the world around us, and not just adopt the idea that "nothing really bad will ever happen, and even if it does, that is why we have a government," an attitude so common among most Americans today.

Self-reliance is an attitude of responsibility and accountability. It is up to us to take care of ourselves and our families - not society, the government, public schools, or any other "authorities." It is our duty to watch out for life's potential pitfalls, and to take proactive steps ahead of time to prevent or survive those pitfalls.  


Building on the foundation of awareness and self-reliance, there are many other useful skills for surviving dystopia, including:

  • Situational Awareness & OODA Loop 
  • Operational Security/Privacy Protection 
  • Dealing with an Intrusive Government 
  • Dealing with busybody neighbors, landlords, etc. 
  • Local Knowledge (knowing your area) 
  • Being the Gray Man (fitting in and going unnoticed) 
  • Making yourself an unappealing target for bad guys (know how to not look like a victim) 
  • Mobility (the ability to pull up roots and move away from threats and towards opportunities)
  • Money Management & Personal Finance Skills 
  • Computer and Technology Skills (using technology to your benefit, while knowing and protecting yourself from the risks)
  • Self-Defense and Home-Defense Skills (more than just guns & ammo) 
  • Knowing what to do in an active shooter situation 
  • Knowing what to do if you get caught in a civil unrest or riot situation 
  • Health & Fitness (you do not want to be dependent on the government public healthcare system)
  • Stealth/Alternative Medicine (you do not want to be dependent on the government public healthcare system) 
  • First Aid (including dealing with gunshot wounds and other severe trauma) 
  • Employability in an era of High Tech and Artificial Intelligence
This list is, of course, just the tip of the iceberg of needed skills. If you have suggestions for other needed skills, just put them in the comments section below.

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