This being the last day of 2021, I thought I would try my hand at a number of predictions for what might happen in 2022. I'm not pulling nay punches here. I doubt everything on this list will happen, but I am equally certain one or more may happen.
Black Swan and False Flag
A "Black Swan Event" is an extremely negative event that is unpredictable and unknowable beforehand. However, it can be said that a Black Swan is more likely to occur during highly chaotic times - the more chaotic the situation, the more likely a Black Swan will occur. The ongoing pandemic and various governmental overreactions, a US President whose health and mental-capabilities are questionable at best, ongoing global supply chain problems, and numerous geopolitical flashpoints (Iran-Israel, Russia-Ukraine, Belarus-Poland, China-Taiwan, China-India, India-Pakistan, etc.) make for a highly chaotic situation, thus greatly increasing the likelihood of a Black Swan in 2022. The exact nature of that Black Swan is unknowable, of course.
A "False Flag Event" is an event that is designed to disguise its real cause in an effort to blame another party for it. This is a form of manipulation and psychological warfare, and may be employed by governments, political parties, or other groups in an effort to further an agenda by controlling public opinion. I believe that False Flags become more likely as those who are in power become increasingly fearful of losing that power. With the Biden administration hitting record low approval numbers, the failure of the (Marxist) Build Back Better Bill, and the increasing likelihood of Democrats losing both the House and Senate in November, the chances of one or more False Flag events in the USA is very high in 2022.
Likewise, as the people continue to revolt against the insane lockdowns and mandates around the world being pushed by the globalist Elites, the chances of False Flags in other countries is greatly increased for 2022.
Economic Forecast
Inflation and supply chain problems will continue throughout 2022. Inflation is here to stay for quite some time, particularly for food and household goods. Despite the wishful thinking of some financial analysts and other talking heads on TV, inflation is not "transitory" but rather is becoming entrenched. The actual causes of inflation - too much money (monetary and fiscal policy) chasing too few goods (over-regulation and supply chain problems) - are not changing in 2022. Furthermore, once raised prices seldom come down to pre-inflation levels. Current high prices are mostly permanent.
Two notable exceptions to continued inflation may be fuel prices and home prices. Oil and gas may fall if we go back into lockdown mode or if a global recession hits, due to decreased demand. On the other hand, the outbreak of war in the middle east (most likely Israel - Iran) or in Asia between China and Taiwan (if the US and Japan get involved) could cause higher prices and short-term shortages.
Home prices are starting to look like a bubble, with dramatic increases over the last couple of years. The bubble may burst in 2022, or it could hold off until 2023. One interesting indicator is the number of "experts" telling us that things are different "this time" with home prices. In reality, things are rarely "different this time" with bubbles of any sort. The "different this time" crowd are really just hoping to keep making the fat commissions and high bonuses the bubble is providing them. They louder they become in their assurances that things are different this time, the more worried I become.
Supply Chain problems will continue throughout 2022, even is the pandemic insanity eases. Root causes of the supply chain problems are not found in the pandemic or lockdowns, but were merely exposed by them. Root causes go back many years, and include over-reliance on foreign manufacturing, a shortage of shipping containers caused by our massive trade deficit (more containers coming here but not being sent back there for lack of exports), a massive shortage of truck drivers, and even a shortage of trucks available to be put on the road if we had enough drivers, among other things. These causes will take years to resolve, not to mention lots of political will, even after pandemic insanity subsides.
The job market will continue to be problematic, with continuing uncertainty over vaccine mandates, and potential lockdowns in blue states, which has caused a lot of people to simply drop out of the job market, making the actual unemployment figures artificially low. At the same time there are a lot of chronically unfilled job openings and a lack of skilled (in the right ways) labor. If we do move towards more lockdowns, or if inflation and supply chain problems tip us into another recession, the job situation will only grow worse. I see little reason it will grow better.
As to the lack of skilled labor, this is mostly a self-inflicted wound by the companies and industries complaining about it. In order to save money, most companies no longer want to train their own workers, preferring instead for the workers to get trained on their own (trade schools, community colleges, etc.). This has been going on for a couple of decades now and the situation will not change in 2022.
I put the chances of a recession in 2022 at 75%. Reasons include continued inflation, continued supply chain problems, continued anti-energy policies, and a problematic jobs market. Black swans, false flags, and international conflict could also push us over the edge into recession.
Build Back Better
The (Marxist) Build Back Better bill is dead in the Senate. I seriously doubt they will even have a vote on it in January. Moderate Dems don't want to be "put on the record" voting for it. But even if they do hold a vote, it fails. However, the Build Back Better agenda is NOT dead. It is too important to the Globalists and the Deep State. Biden will likely implement parts of it by executive order. Other parts of the Bill will likely be stripped out and voted on separately. These smaller parts will likely pass with Republican help (notably various "moderates" who worship at the altar of compromise such as Mitt Romney and Lindsey Graham). I predict that by the end of 2022, at 70% of what is in the Build Back Better bill will be enacted one way or another.
International Chaos
America's weakened military and extremely weak political leadership is endangering the world, as the world's bad actors are encouraged to pursue their goals and agendas in the power vacuum. Here are what I see as the potential flashpoints in 2022:
China-Taiwan. China has long wanted to take Taiwan, and has publicly stated on many occassions that they will do so militarily. With a weaken US military and an even weaker President (who may as well be a paid employee of China), China will never have a better opportunity to take Taiwan as they will in 2022, and China knows it. The probability of China moving military on Taiwan in 2022 is nearing 100%.
This conflict is one that could easily expand into a true world war. The Biden administration may do nothing more than diplomatic and economic sanctions. However, there is still a chance that the US and Japan may try to defend Taiwan. North Korea may become involved on China's side, which would bring the South Koreans into the mix. India, fearful over Chinese military expansion, may join against China. Pakistan would then attack India. Russia, long with eyes on some of the northern islands owned by Japan, may also jump in. You see how quickly this could escalate into a true world war, with China, Russia, Pakistan, and North Korea on one side, and Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, India, and a weakened US on the other side. Notice how many nuclear powers are involved in this scenario? The dangers are huge.
China-India. There is an ongoing border dispute between India and China, with China wanting several large border regions currently controlled by India. This dispute has already lead to actually military conflict between the nations, most recently in 2020, when China killed 20 Indian troops in Ladakh.
China-Japan. China wants a number of islands currently owned by Japan due to there strategic importantance for international shipping.
Russia-Japan. Russia and Japan both claim a number of islands in the northern Pacific. Russia is currently deploying missile defense systems in this area.
India-Pakistan. Both nuclear powers. Both hate each other. Tensions are rising and accusations being hurled.
Iran Nuclear Weapons. Iran is openly pursuing nuclear weapons once again, and they were already getting close. The US and the West seem determined to pretend it won't happen. Chance of a successful nuclear test by Iran in 2022 is 65%. By the end of 2023, the chance is 96%.
Israel-Iran. Always a potential conflict between these two, and with Iran getting very close to becoming a nuclear power, it could erupt with Israel trying to stop it. However, this seems increasingly less likely as Israel seems to realize they will be in it alone thanks to US weakness.
Belarus-Poland. Belarus has been provoking Poland along their border over the last year or so, probably at the prompting of Russia. Russia wants control of a sliver of northern Poland, giving them a land bridge through Belarus to Russian Kaliningrad (take a close look at a good, detailed map of this region to understand).
Russia-Ukraine. Russia has grown tired of Ukraine's threats and NATO's broken promises, and wants a large piece of Ukraine. The truth of this dispute is very different than the official narrative generally reported in the West. This is a problem created by the West and by the CIA. I think there is a 50-50 chance that Russia moves against Ukraine in 2022. This chance goes to 100% if the US gets distracted by a war with China over Taiwan. We cannot fight those two wars at the same time, and Russia knows it.
COVID Pandemic
The biological danger from the COVID virus is about over, as the extremely mild omicron variant is providing safe and effective natural immunity against all strains of the virus. The political and economic danger inflicted on us by the intentional actions of the Globalist Elites will remain with us for some time to come. Expect the Globalists to continue using the pandemic to push their agenda in 2022, even as the actual threat obviously disappears.
A Final Prediction
There seems to be an increasing level of cooperation between China and Russia. I have a gut feeling that we may see a coordinated event where Russia attacks Ukraine and China attacks Taiwan on the same day. This would confuse the US and the West, and divide and weaken our response. Chance of this actually happening is 35%.
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