Friday, April 10, 2020

The Thucydides Trap and the War With China


By Timothy Gamble (Orginally published on TimGamble.com, August 23, 2019)

The current trade war with China is only a prelude to what is coming. China is preparing for what it considers an inevitable "hot" war with America within the next 10 years. China is convinced this war must happen because of a concept known as the Thucydides Trap. 

The Thucydides Trap isn't some conspiracy theory twaddle, but is a well-studied historical concept heavily discussed in academic and diplomatic circles. Very simply, the Thucydides Trap states that when a rising great power (China, in this instance) threatens to displace an existing great power (in this case, America), a war that will almost certainly lead to the destruction of one of the great powers is almost always inevitable.
 
The Chinese are very aware of this concept, and are actively making policy based on it. Again, this is known and discussed within diplomatic circles (i.e. cannot be dismissed as a conspiracy theory, but rather is known fact). It is the basis of their ongoing massive military build-up, as well as their interference in North Korea (the Chinese have always assisted North Korea with their nuclear and missile programs, and are pushing Kim Jong-un to stall in regards to denuclearization). It is also part of the reasoning behind their aggressiveness in the South China Sea (control over vital trade routes), including their building of artificial islands & military bases, as well as their economic & diplomatic push into South America and Africa (the later which includes a growing military presence), to obtain various resources. 

Take a look at a few recent headlines during the past week alone:


When Will This War Happen? 

An honest answer: I don't know. What I do know is that China is preparing for a hot war with the United States. I assume they are waiting for the right moment to strike, a moment when they feel ready and believe the US is at its weakest. I suspect they will wait to see what happens in the 2020 election (notice the last headline posted above is about China already meddling in support of the Democrats in the 2020 elections). 

I also know that we need to start preparing, as a nation and as individuals, for the coming war with China. History says it is almost certainly inevitable. The clock is ticking.
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